Fighting has been ferocious in the last week, with syria and turkey taking and inflicting casualties and coming closer to all. Indeed erdogan continues to justify his aggression against syria with the wests dishonest claim of humanitarian intervention to save the syrian people. Officially, russia is participating only in an air war over syria, with a small number of special and support troops on the ground. Russia, iran, and the assad regime have undertaken a series of operations to seize terrain and rebuild the syrian state under syrian president bashar alassad. The fear that drives russias support for syrias assad. Today, as russia sends troops, armor, and aircraft to syria, we are once again perplexed. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Russia, in turn, doubled down on its air campaign in support of assad. Syrias conflict actors can roughly be grouped as follows. Russias role in the libyan civil war gives it leverage over. Iran and israel may never get along, but both learn to live.
Jan 27, 2018 russia had always provided tech and material spare parts support for this largely russian fleet of warplanes and helicopters but not enough for the syrians to keep more than 30 percent of the 370 aircraft and helicopters operational. I tend to find that russias interests in syria are pretty clear and they are as follows. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. Were we to accept russias ultimatum, we could not support our allies and wed be shut out of the endgame battle with isis when, as raqqa. At the astana ceasefire talks, russia, turkey and iran have agreed to create four safe zones in syria. Since the start of the syrian civil war in 2011, russia has stood by bashar alassads embattled regime against a host of foreign and domestic enemies, most notably through its aerial intervention of 2015. In march 2011 antigovernment protests broke out in syria, inspired by a wave of similar demonstrations elsewhere in the middle east and north africa that had begun in december 2010. But russias involvement in syria has already come at considerable cost. The regime, which has benefited from direct military support from russia, iran, hezbollah, as well as other iranbacked foreign militias and russian private military contractors, while its own forces were joined on the ground by. Katz, fairfax abstract putin has dramatically stepped up moscows support for the assad regime through the insertion of russian. The russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives. Russias policy on syria after the start of military. A cheat sheet1 1 causes of the syrian civil war discontent with authoritarianism and assad familys long reign of power in syria since the 1970s syria is 74% sunni, but the assad family is part of a shia sect known as the alawites.
Russias role in the libyan civil war gives it leverage over europe russia has played all sides in the conflict to get a seat at the negotiating table. In late 2015early 2016, russias military campaign in syria involved two main components. Why did russia intervene in support of assad in late 2015 almost long four years after. No one can yet estimate how many more forces and weapons russia. The syrian war has raged on for more than 4 years now and the global citizenry had decided to keep quiet until recently grover, 2015. When the arab spring reached syria, its pharaoh, bashar alassad, was in no mood to give up easily. Why russia is so involved with the syrian civil war. Russia and turkeys next moves will define the syrian war s end neither side can back down from proxy standoff, but russia holds whip hand in idlib martin chulov middle east corresponent. He argues that the ultimate outcome in such a war would have been decided by the position of other powers russia, the united states and nato.
Fighting has been ferocious in the last week, with syria and turkey taking and inflicting casualties and. Chinas role in syrias endless civil war south china. The presence of russias top military commander in syria so near to the frontline islamic state fighters were still less than 2 km away, skirmishing with syrian troops around palmyra airbase was a vivid illustration of the role played by moscows senior officers in the syrian conflict. A range of foreign states have intervened in syria in support of the asad government or syrian opposition forces, as well in pursuit of domestic security goals. The us and nato plans to reconfigure the middle east bestowed upon turkey an expansionist role along with providing logistical and military support to us proxies to wage aggressive war on syria. Khodarenok believes turkey has enough military might to overrun the syrian army within days.
Russia and syria oxford academic journals oxford university press. Apr 02, 2020 the international community, including russia, did little in the early years of the war to stop militant groups and regional powers from contributing to the violence by exploiting syrias power vacuum to their immediate advantage. As syrias war enters its endgame, the risk of a usrussia. This paper sets out to explain the syrian crisis and analyse.
In 2011, it looked as if the arab spring uprisings would deal a further blow to russia s declining influence in the middle east, by toppling syrian president assad, one of bashar almoscows few remaining allies in the region. Apr 14, 2017 it is russias only naval access to the mediterranean, and they are not going to give it up. Russias policy on syria after the start of military engagement. If the united states accepts that turkish proposal, then world war iii will consequently result. Syrias crisis and the global response council on foreign.
Russia had always provided tech and material spare parts support for this largely russian fleet of warplanes and helicopters but not enough for the syrians to keep more than 30 percent of the 370 aircraft and helicopters operational. The situation in syrias northwest is dynamic and has the potential to escalate dramatically. Apr 07, 2017 it was the seventh time russia has used its veto power to block westernsponsored sanctions on syria since the start of the civil war, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and left. Turkey asks nato to join its war against syria and russia. Russias involvement in the syrian crisis constitutes a new strategic paradigm in the middle east and the international arena. In february 2016, the russian ambassador to syria said that part of russia s arms deliveries to the syrian government was gratis or on easy terms. The evolution of russias military operation in syria. Russia enables new syrian regime offensive in idlib. Jan 18, 2020 russias role in the libyan civil war gives it leverage over europe russia has played all sides in the conflict to get a seat at the negotiating table.
With russia and turkey seeking new solutions, dw examines where the major players stand. Israel has shown restraint, principally out of concern over spillover effects. Apr 10, 2018 a case in point, as has become sharply evident this week, is the muchvaunted deconfliction arrangement between russia and israel after the former entered the war in syria on the side of the. There is no rational basis upon which to expect russia to renounce its support for syria. Civil wars will continue to be fought as long as external support to one.
Soviet cold war leaders, who did not defend or support the. Jul 16, 2019 download the brief the issue as tensions escalate between the united states and iran in the middle east, russia is engaged in covert and overt cooperation with iran in ways that undermine u. It is russias only naval access to the mediterranean, and they are not going to give it up. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russias only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live. In 2011, it looked as if the arab spring uprisings would deal a further blow to russias declining influence in the middle east, by toppling syrian president assad, one of bashar almoscows few remaining allies in the region. Mar 05, 2020 russia, in turn, doubled down on its air campaign in support of assad. Russia will support leaders and governments against popular uprisings and will not desert them when opposition groups attempt to seize control, as the united states abandoned egyptian president hosni mubarak in 2011. Countries with close diplomatic and economic ties to russia, including china, egypt, iraq and belarus, have generally supported the intervention. The story goes back at least to cold war times, when the soviet union gained influence in syria in the 1970s, giving aid and arms. Buoyed by russian and iranian support, the syrian president and his.
A russianbacked military campaign that began as a lim ited seizure of terrain for the assad regime has since evolved into a major undertaking within. Gerges of the london school of economics opined the russian military intervention had turned out to be a gamechanger in the syrian civil war. Download the brief the issue as tensions escalate between the united states and iran in the middle east, russia is engaged in covert and overt cooperation with iran in ways that undermine u. Syrias civil war continued unabated in late20 amid international debate on how to mediate the nearly twoandahalfyearold conflict that has killed more than 100,000 people and displaced. The damascus regime fully backed the russian initiative as opposition delegates walked out in protest. But after the collapse of the soviet union in the 1990s, its. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and.
Russia and turkey agree to syria ceasefire, but idlibs. The syrian government, the opposition rebels, foreign powers and islamic militants are all the architects of the syrian quagmire. Russia, iran, turkey agree on syria safe zones, opposition cries foul. The brutal repression of peaceful antigovernment protests pushed the country towards a civil war. Iran and israel may never get along, but both learn to. Syria in russias middle eastern policy in the early 1990s, russia became frustrated by its failure to be admitted to the usdominated international community as a. The iswctp team recently released americas way ahead in syria, which details the flaws in the current u. Soviet unions allies during its transition, and ultimately lost them and his country. Firstly, there has been a huge loss in terms of human deaths and damages to property. Russian military intervention in the syrian civil war. Russias moves in syria are seemingly based on a larger geopolitical strategy that counts on little interference from the united states and its coalition allies. With nearconstant fighter jet sorties, lowaltitude attack helicopters, and close air support capability, russia is changing the nature of the battle in syrias fourandahalf yearold civil war. The international community, including russia, did little in the early years of the war to stop militant groups and regional powers from contributing to the violence by exploiting syrias power vacuum to their immediate advantage. Jun 21, 2017 russias objectives in syria have been clear from the start of its overt military intervention in september 2015 even if the us and some of its allies refused to see them.
Apr 11, 2017 appeals to the importance statehood have a deep resonance in russian history. Since the start of the syrian civil war in 2011, russia has stood by bashar al assads embattled. In fact, the most influential school of russian historiography rejects the western view that history is a progression towards limited government that allows space for individual liberty. Why russia supports assad the american conservative. The fear that drives russias support for syrias assad russian president vladimir putin has consistently supported president bashar assad through syrias violent crisis. Russias economy of force operation in syria relies on sea, air, special forces, and independent contractors, which left the bulk of the ground fighting to the syrian arab army and its iranianbacked hezbollah allies.
The active support from saudi arabia, qatar and turkeys islamist government for rebels in syria only heightens suspicions in russia about the islamist nature of the current opposition in syria. What putin really wants in syria russia never sought to be a smalltime fixer in the middle east. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. This will have significant implications for the balance of power and the rivalries in syrias civil war, and for the struggle between the superpowers for global influence. The surge of russian support meant the syrian air force could be rebuilt and become a major factor once more. Wars, its fears about so called color revolutions in. Quick update on the turkey vs syria, russia and iran the.
Proasad forces operating in syria include lebanese hezbollah, iran, and russia. Russia launched its intervention in syria in 2015 to preserve a russianamenable regime that allows russia to use syria for military basing that supports these goals. The meaning of russias campaign in syria the belfer center for. During the conflict, russian aerospace forces would be supported by around 3,000 ground troops, with perhaps 1,500 based at hmeimim alone. Mr putins decision to intervene in syria and shore up mr assad with new fighter jets, military advisers and advanced weapons stopped the bleeding of the syrian. It was the seventh time russia has used its veto power to block westernsponsored sanctions on syria since the start of the civil war, which has resulted in tens of.
Russian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Russia s moves in syria are seemingly based on a larger geopolitical strategy that counts on little interference from the united states and its coalition allies. It is russia s only naval access to the mediterranean, and they are not going to give it up. Russias role in the libyan civil war gives it leverage. A steadfast supporter of the assad dynasty since the cold war era, moscow. That changed selectively when the islamic state gained a territorial foothold in syria and iraq. Jun 19, 2017 the stakes in syria now include usrussia war. Jul 07, 2012 the active support from saudi arabia, qatar and turkeys islamist government for rebels in syria only heightens suspicions in russia about the islamist nature of the current opposition in syria. On monday president vladimir putin provided the explanation. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. Syria s complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. Why the syrian civil war is becoming even more complex.
Oct 21, 2015 with nearconstant fighter jet sorties, lowaltitude attack helicopters, and close air support capability, russia is changing the nature of the battle in syrias fourandahalf yearold civil war. Russias objectives in syria have been clear from the start of its overt military intervention in september 2015 even if the us and some of its allies refused to see them. The syrian conflict and international support for rebel. Syrias complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. Should moscow choose not to intervene it will be a politicalmilitary fiasco. From the perspective of the gulf states, first and foremost saudi arabia and. A case in point, as has become sharply evident this week, is the muchvaunted deconfliction arrangement between russia and israel after. Pdf the russian military intervention in syria since september 2015 has. Its goal was to reclaim its status as a global power broker.
Russian intervention in syria air power development centre. Instead, this statist school of historiography views russian history as a steady progression from anarchical tribalism to a. They argue that russia continues to support the syrian regime in order to protect its own strategic interests and, in particular, to fight terrorism while also becoming an important power broker in the middle east. Israel is also affected by these implications, given the. Opinion why russia supports syria the new york times. This analysis of commercial satellite imagery at tiyas airbase in syria indicates the scope and proximity of russian and iranian military ties.
External actors and interests as drivers of conflict. Mar 27, 20 the fear that drives russia s support for syria s assad russian president vladimir putin has consistently supported president bashar assad through syria s violent crisis. Going to war against syria would mean going to war also against russia, which is in syria to protect syrias sovereignty over its own territory. Russian leader on first trip to syrian capital since start of 2011 civil war, which comes amid soaring usiran tensions and fears of war by afp september 25, 2019, 3. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syria s coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria.
The intervention appears to be a deliberate strategic effort to support the regime with direct military force, most likely spurred by the assessment that bashar alassads forces are. The syrian gambit is thus part of a broader move to recoup russian influence in the middle east. Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. In the 1980s, syria broke with most of the arab worldand much of the international community, including the u. Russia and turkeys next moves will define the syrian war. Published by the institute for the study of war, march 2017.
1272 1405 207 1303 222 269 361 727 609 631 850 956 639 1019 729 101 1197 52 1182 729 1309 958 196 1195 98 731 944 1466 335 383 98 236 1414 377 1058